What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting ... |
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"За мишките и хората" (1937) се радва на голям успех още с появата си. Това е невероятно затрогващ разказ за сложната спойка между двама мигриращи селскостопански работници - Джордж Милтън и Лени Смол. Те пътуват от ферма на ферма в търсене на временна работа и мечтаят един ден да си имат собствена ферма. Лени е едър и тромав, умствено изостанал мъж, който по детски се радва на всичко пухкаво и меко. Джордж бащински го закриля и внимава Лени да не направи някоя беля поради извънредно голямата си физическа сила, която не умее да контролира... Джон Стайнбек (1902 - 1968) е роден в калифорнийския град Салинас, ... |
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Atlas d'anatomie humaine et de chirurgie. Atlas der menschlichen anatomie und der Chirurgie. Multilingual Edition: English, French, German. ... We owe a great debt to Jean Baptiste Marc Bourgery (1797 - 1849) for his Atlas of Anatomy, which was not only a massive event in medical history, but also remains one of the most comprehensive and beautifully illustrated anatomical treatises ever published. Bourgery began work on his magnificent atlas in 1830 in cooperation with illustrator Nicolas Henri Jacob (1782 - 1871), a student of the French painter Jacques Louis David. The first volumes were published the following ... |
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The book behind the fourth season of the acclaimed HBO series "Game of Thrones". No. 1 "New York Times" bestselling author. ... Few books have captivated the imagination and won the devotion and praise of readers and critics everywhere as has George R.R. Martin's monumental epic cycle of high fantasy. Now, in "A Feast for Crows", Martin delivers the long-awaited fourth book of his landmark series, as a kingdom torn asunder finds itself at last on the brink of peace... only to be launched on an even more terrifying course of destruction. It seems too good to be true. After centuries of ... |
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В това издание наименованията на географски обекти са изписани на испански / португалски език - така, както ще ги видите и на пътеуказателните табели. Имената на по-големите градове са дублирани на български език. Характеристики на пътната карта на Испания и Португалия: размери на сгъната карта: 12.5 x 23 cm; размери на разгъната карта: 100 x 70 cm; разстояния в километри; наименования на всички населени места на испански/португалски език; наименования на по-големите населени места на български език; легенда на български и английски език; мащаб на пътна карта на Испания и Португалия 1:900 000. Важно! ... |
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In the modern, dynamic world of new technology and new scientific fields, the reflection of all innovative processes in the economic activity is very important. It is very difficult to analyze and describe all the interactions in one manual. That is why, the purpose of the book is to segment and distinguish different impacts of the Intellectual products and their place in the contemporary economic study. The Intellectual product, as a generator of new consumer needs and one of the main tools for products and services differentiation, is the main subject of the presented manual. ... |
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Страници: 8 цветни страници Формат: 26.5 x 33 cm ... Децата могат изцяло да развихрят фантазията си, да включат и свои приятели в това "представление", да творят така, както на тях най-много им допада. Всички елементи на макета са подвижни - дори покривът на къщичката. Така че са напълно възможни и игрови ситуации, различни от самата приказка. В кутията с макета е сложена и една малка книжка с приказката. Необходими материали: лепило за хартия ножица макетен нож линия или триъгълник изписана химикалка Последователност на работа: Частите се изрязват с ножица или макетен нож по контурите ... |
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New York Times bestseller. ... A brilliant, penetrating examination of the roller-coaster life of silicon valley's most audacious businessman, sending shock waves throughout business and industry. "Musk is a visionary genius: the man most likely to solve our addiction to carbon, save the planet from global warming, and set us on course for our interplanetary destiny." London Review of Books "An essential read... a riveting portrait of Silicon Valley's most driven entrepreneur since Steve Jobs" Financial Times "An entertaining read for anybody who wants to get into the mind of this ... |
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The Hound of the Baskervilles is the classic detective chiller. It features the world's greatest detective, Sherlock Holmes , in his most challenging case. The Baskerville family is haunted by a phantom beast "with blazing eyes and dripping jaws" which roams the mist-enshrouded moors around the isolated Baskerville Hall on Dartmoor. Now the hound seems to be stalking young Sir Henry, the new master of the Baskerville estate. Is this devilish spectre the manifestation of the family curse? Or is Sir Henry the victim of a vile and scheming murderer? Only Sherlock Holmes can solve this devilish affair. The ... |
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This beautiful gift book presents a host of classic tales, carefully retold to appeal to young readers. Bright, colourful illustrations are packed with charm and detail to capture the imaginations of younger children. Stories include Goldilocks and the Three Bears, Jack and the Beanstalk, The Elves and the Shoemaker and many more. The cover has been designed using a wealth of special effects. ... |
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Acarological studies in Bulgaria start in 1907 (water mites) and 1921 (terrestrial mites). So far 1673 species of Acari (Acariformes and Parasitiformes) have been reported (252 Acaridida, 420 Oribatida, 616 Prostigmata, 344 Mesostigmata and 44 Ixodida). They belong to 630 genera and 213 families. The real number of mites species living in Bulgaria is expected to exceed 3000. The checklist is preceded by a short review of the history of the acarological research and is followed by a bibliography of 477 titles. The systematic position of many taxa is made up-to-date and many names are introduced for the first time in ... |
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Contains 30 stories. ... Head off on a sparkling springtime adventure with the world's best-loved storyteller. From the little boy who helps a lamb in trouble to the fairies hidden inside Easter Eggs, excitement and magic are never far away in this collection of stories to read and share. These fun, entertaining tales are ideal for newly confident readers and are the perfect length for reading aloud at bedtime or in the classroom. ... |